Today's Market View - EURUSD

Before 1 month the chairperson of the European central bank ( ECB ) made an aggressive statement, which pointed out his intension to fight against inflationary pressures. The statement moved Euro up 200 points. Today before rate decision and press conference of Mr Triche we ask questions: What surprise Mr Triche prepared in this time? Rate up 25 basic points for anti-inflationary measures is already taken in account in the current course of the Euro. But if investors and another market participants make up a conclusion that the ECB tends to increase its interest rates follow months, the single European currency may test the historical high at $1.6020, but if rate up ends once, the Euro may extend losses. According to analysts, the CPI in Euro Zone points twice more than the aim expected by Triche. A publication of unemployment in the US gives anxiety of traders. If Triche’s comment is aggressive and unemployment disappointing them, the Euro can quickly go through the figure $1.6000 before Triche will start answering to questions.

On Wednesday EURUSD trades at $1.5778, near the upper limit of diapason between $1.5775 and $1.5888. The Euro is in demand after a little weakening in the European session. Offers are at yesterday’s maximum at $1.5891. The option barrier at $1.5900 is protected. Additional offers are set at $1.5920 with stops above.

From the point of technical view a brake of 76.% Fibonacci at $1.6020-$1.5287 improve a perspective. Furthermore a widening of Bollinger bands points at the possibility in further upside movement of the currency course. Bulls aim at the historical high. Daily stochastic moves in overbought zone, but there are some signs pointing to temporary neutralisation of upside movement before ECB rate decision, so now’s currency course has already took into account rate up of ECB. Momentum and MACD show long-term upside trend, but in short time seem neutral.

RES 4: $1.6997 maximum of 22 Apr.
RES 3: $1.5940 upper band of Bollinger bands
RES 2: $1.5923 2% envelope
RES 1: $1.5892 maximum of 2 Jul.

current quotation: $1.5879

SUP 1: $1.5766 1% envelope
SUP 2: $1.5686 support line from 13 Jun.
SUP 3: $1.5638 100-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5613 21-day moving average