Technische Analyse - USDCHF

Gestern hat USDCHF den Ralley fortgesetzt. Nach der kurzen Zeit ist der USD über die 2-monatliche Trendlinie im Bereich von Chf1,0456 aufgesprungen. Heute „spielt“ der Cross weiter in diesem Widerstandsbereich. Eine überzeugte Überbindung wird die Tür zum 200-täglichen Durichschnitt auf Chf1,0678 öffnen.

RES 4: Chf1.0678 200-täglicher Durchschnitt
RES 3: Chf1.0620 Tageshoch vom 8.Mai
RES 2: Chf1.0535/41 2% Umschlag, Tageshoch vom 13.Juni
RES 1: Chf1.0474/79 Oberkannte von Bollinger Bänder, Tageshoch vom 29.Juli

Aktueller Preis: Chf1.0461

SUP 1: Chf1.0399 5-täglicher Durchschnitt
SUP 2: Chf1.0328 10-täglicher Durchschnitt
SUP 3: Chf1.0264/71 100, 21-täglicher Durchschnitt
SUP 4: Chf1.0018 Tagestief vom 15.Juli

Nachricht USDCAD

Der Dollar hat sich in der europäischen Handel erholt und gegenüber der kanadischen Währung den Hoch dieses Monats testiert und die Neue über C$1,0250 notiert. Zurzeit fällt das Währungspaar bei der Korrektur von den Hochs, begegnend Widerstände wie Verkäufer im Hoch. Wenn die Stärkung des Dollar seine Fortsetzung findet, kann das Cross USDCAD einen weiteren Anstieg bis zum nächsten Bereich in der Spanne zwischen C$1,0295 und C$1,0300.

Trade Strategy

EURUSD: The currency pair consolidated on the upper limit of Ichimoku clouds after the 3 corrections. We expect correction to 9- and 26-day moving average at the level at $1,5764/$1,5786. Sure break above the level which can occur today in the second half day, adds necessary bullish impulse to the currency pair.

Strategy: Buy at the level at $1,5750; stop below $1,5625. Add long positions in the case of sure break above $1,5800 and close them at the level of $1,5950-$1,6020.

USDJPY: The Greenback quoted in a narrow range below June highs. The American currency is not overbought and Momentum is on 100. Open interest falls again and is equal to the half of peak of the previous year. Today a trade in a range between Y107,75 and 106,65.

Strategy: Sell at the level of Y107,50, add positions till Y108,00; stop above 108,65. Short-term target is at 107,25, the next one is at 106,65.

BGPUSD: Trade passes in the frame of a potential figure “flag”, till the currency pair is hold above 1,9800. Today attempts to test the level of 2,0000 is possible.

Strategy: Open long positions at the level of $1,9950, add positions till 1,9850; stop below $1,9800. Short-term target at $2,0000, the next one is at $2,1000.

Today's Market View - EURUSD

Asks from Russian account does not allow EURUSD to continue falling below $1,5700 initiated before the European Forex market. But further attempts to consolidate are stopped by offers for sell near the level at $1,5725. Interest of sellers is strengthened near $1,5740 and below this level. Commerzbank think that Forex take a waiting position till key events for the Dollar at the end of this week. As for Monday, experts consider that it is hardly possible to break the trade range between $1,5630 and $1,5750.

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Technical Analysis - AUSUSD

The Australian Dollar continues correction at the level of longstanding highs of the previous week, as falling below the 21-day moving average. Today the Australian Dollar received support against the American Dollar as a trend line from Januar's highs and that of the 55-day moving average. Breakthrough below stimulates fall to the low of this month about $0.9481.

RES 4: $0.9851 longstanding high (16 Jul.)
RES 3: $0.9705 10-day MA
RES 2: $0.9682 5-day MA
RES 1: $0.9644 21-day MA

current quotation: $0.9612

SUP 1: $0.9569/64 upside trend from January's low, 55-day moving average
SUP 2: $0.9481 low of 9 Jul.
SUP 3: $0.9440 100-day MA
SUP 4: $0.9330 low of 12 Jun.

Kreuzung des Indikatores DMI weist auf die Perspektive des Ansiegs des Dollar/Franc, aber es braucht für Bestätigung der Aufwärtsbewegung, einen Widerstand der Trendlinie vom Mai-Hoch bei Chf1.0453 zu überwinden. Ein langfristiges Ziel beim Anstieg liegt am 200-täglichen Durchschnitt bei Chf1,7040, eine nächste Unterstützung gibt der 5-tägliche Durchschnitt bei Chf1.0292.


RES 4: Chf1.0704 200-täglicher Durchschnitt
RES 3: Chf1.0620 Mai-Hoch
RES 2: Chf1.0453 Trendlinie vom Mai-Hoch
RES 1: Chf1.0429 2% Umschlag

Aktueller Preis: Chf1.0372

SUP 1: Chf1.0292 5-täglicher Durschchnitt
SUP 2: Chf1.0257 100-täglicher Durchschnitt
SUP 3: Chf1.0233 21-täglicher Durchschnitt
SUP 4: Chf1.0122 1% Umschlag

Today's Market View - USD

At the beginning of European trade session the Dollar as before take a defensive position after Dollar sell in New York against background of unfavourable financial data and unclear further perspective of such companies like Amex, Apple and Texas Instruments. In Asian market Euro/Dollar was a little strengthened above New York highs at $1,5930 to $1,5938. As the currency pair keeps position at $1,5925, a setback attracts Dollar-buyers on the market. Dealers note that below $1,5900 they see strong interest on buy in EURUSD. As for the Dollar against the Japanese Yen, in Asia the Greenback was sold at every moving up. As a result the American currency hit the low at Y106,32, but a support recovered the Dollar.

EUR/USD: The fact, that the currency pair formed the bottom at $1,5800 and closed yesterday above $1,5900, can be a necessary stimulus for repeated test of the level of the historical high at $1,6020/40.

Strategy: Open small long positions on fall to the level to $1,5900, adding positions till $1,5835. Stop below $1,5750. Close long positions in the range between $1,5950 and $1,6020, resuming buys on the case of week close above $1,6025 or sure break above $1,6050 with a target at $1,6100 and then at $1,6250.

USD/JPY: Yesterday the currency pair stopped approaching to Y107,50 and now falls in direction to 106.00, as we expected. Today expect careful movement below Y107,00. Falls are probably limited to the upper line of Ichimoku clouds at 106,00. But during this week the Greenback possibly continues dropping. Only a week close below Y105,50 signals that intermediate peak is formed.

Strategy: Sell at Y106,50/106,75. Stop above Y107,20. Short-term target is at 106,00, then 105,00.

GBPUSD: The British Pound moved up from the level at $1,9900 and was closed above $2,0000. It can create conditions for next “short grip” to the end of this week. When the British currency begins surely trading above $2,0100, the risk of next weakening will be decreased.

Strategy: Buy at the level at $2,0010, adding positions till $1,9925. Stop below $1,9800. Short-term target is at $2,0100 and the next one is at $2,0200.

Die positive Stimmung an den asiatischen Märkten dauert am europäisch geprägten Handel. Das trägt Doppeldruck auf das Cross bei. Von einer Seite reiste der Euro unter Einfluss der Schwächung des Dollars der durch scharfe Strärkung der Ölpreise in Hinsicht auf Drohung der Anlage vom Tropenstrom Dolley im mexikanischen Golf. Außerdem war der Pfund unter Druck danach geraten, dass NBOS von den negativen Ereignissen berichtet hat. Der Pfund von seiner Seite wurde aktiv nach der Interview vom Ratgeber der Bank of England David Blanchflauer in der Zeitung „Guardian“ verkauft, in der er sich für eine aktivere Geldpolitik geäußert und sich für eine sofortige Leitzinssendung ausgesprochen hat. Das Währungsppar EURGBP kannte bis zum Hoch im Bereich von stg0,7975 gestärkt hat, aber in diesem Bereich hat der Euro eine allgemeine Korrektur begann. Im Ereignis ist das Cross bis zu stg0,7960 abgestiegen. Dealer sprechen von der Ansammlung von Stopp über stg0,7980 und von unwesentlichen Vorschlägen in der Spanne zwischen stg0,7980 und 0,7985. Analysten aus UBS und Unicredit sind unterdessen sicher, dass die Wirtschaftsituation in der Eurozone und Großbritannien weiter verschlechtert. Damit empfehlen sie den Verkauf von EURGBP.

Der Pfund hat gegenüber dem Dollar den Bereich von Fibonacci bei $2,0150 nicht überwunden und die Tageschart weist auf Bärendivergenz hin. Damit kann der Pfund erneut eine Abwärtsbewegung machen. Im Fall des Schlosses unter dem 200-täglichem Durchschnitt bei $1,9954 soll die Perspektive verschlechtern. Die Korrektur kann bis zum 6-wöchentlichen Kanal fortgesetzt werden.

RES 4: $2.0150 76.4% Fibonacci Korrektur zwischen $2.0389 und $1.9372, Tageshoch vom 15,Juli
RES 3: $2.0116 1.00% Umschlag
RES 2: $2.0070 Tageshoch vom 17.Juli
RES 1: $2.0005 5-täglicher Durchschnitt

Aktueller Preis: $1.9937

SUP 1: $1.9910 Tagestief vom 18.Juli
SUP 2: $1.9875 21-täglicher Durchschnitt
SUP 3: $1.9820 Tagestief vom 14.Juli
SUP 4: $1.9792 Unterkante des Kanals vom 13.Juni

Market Analysis - GBP

Before opening of the European forex market the British Pound suddenly fell from the level of $1.9990 to the low to $1.9932 after publication of an article in the British newspaper “Guardian that took interview with a councilor of monetary politics of Bank of English Mr David Blanchflauer. The “dove” of monetary politics from Bank of English warned that in Incorporated Kingdom all declare more loudly that the central bank should resort to more aggressive decrease in the key rate to recover the real estate market so and accompanying branches of economy. “In my opinion, the monetary policy remains too rigid, therefore we should undertake necessary actions and, the without delay, the better”, said Mr Branchflauer. Following meeting of Bank of England is planned for 8th May. Pound reacted to such a statement with fall, but demand at the level of $1.9930/20 could stop losses. Then GBPUSD sustained the pace of the youngest fall. Dealers noted that a strong bid exists in the range between $1.9990-$2.0000. If the currency will be down, it can be a hunting for stops below $1.9900.

Devisenanalyse - JPY

Die positive Eröffnung des europäischen Aktienmarktes im Dienstag hat sich nach dem Anstieg an den amerikanischen und asiatischen Märkten auf das Cross mit dem japanischen Yen in Zusammenhang mit verminderten Risiko auf widerspiegelt. Das Währungspaar GBPJPY ist bei der Stärkung bis zu Y211.09 angestiegen, wo das Cross dem durch Verkäufer aufgestellten Widerstand begegnete. Dealer sagen, dass eine sichere Überwindung dieses Bereichs liefert Gründe für einen weiteren Anstieg zu Y212.00/15. Experten auch fügen hinzu, dass trotzdem genug Leute sind, die das Cross mit dem Yen am Markt verkaufen wollen, die Überwindung des Niveaus von Y167.20 des EURJPY diese Situation verändern kann, schätzen einige Trader. Unterdessen nähert die Europäische Gemeinschaftswärhung sich gegenüber dem japanischen Yen dicht dem Bereich, wo nach Schätzung der Trader Gewinnmitnahme beginnt. Dealer betonen den Bestand von Stopps über dieses Bereich und von der langfristigen Stopps im Bereich von Y167.80/85. Der Greenback hat seinerseits geschafft, gegenüber dem Yen ein bisschen zu erholen, aber die Meinung von Experten bleiben logisch und der Bereich hindert das Erreichen der oben gezeigten Bereiche. Im Währungspaar USDJPY liegen jüngste Vorschläge im Bereich von Y105,50 mit einem Stopp über Y105.60. Von den ansteigenden Märkten benoten Analysten BNP Paribas, dass dieser Umstand einen großen Einfluss auf die britische Währung ausüben kann. Damit könne die Pfund die Unterstützung vom Anstieg der Aktienmärkten erhalten, besonders im Falle der Kapital-Refinanzierung von Barclays und HBOS. Gleichzeitig rechnet die Bank damit, dass ein Interesse für Verkauf des GBPUSD über dem Bereich von $2.0100 bleibe.

Technical Analysis - EURUSD

Attempts of EURUSD to move up is rebuffed at the level at $1.5870/80. In this moment the currency pair is quoted at $1.5872, testing interest to sell at the level of $1.5840/30. A break below may pave a way to further bids at the Wednesday and intraday low at $1.5810/00. If this level is broken through, it is not worth excluding a deep correction, but technical analysts from Barclays Capital said that the single European currency keeps the potential to rise. Barclays noted that EURUSD remains above supports at the level at $1.5750 that protect bearish movement, and speaks about a target of movement to $1.65/70. Analysts pay attention to surging risk of fall of the Euro, if bull trader can not protect the support at $1.5750 and take the last break above $1.60 for fault that points out to the potential of a serious correction.

Devisenanalyse - EURUSD

JPMorgan verzichtete auf ihrer Vorhersage zugunsten der Anhebung des Leitzinses FRS um 25 Basispunkte in diesem Jahre nach der Äußerung des Chefs Bernankes, in der er von der Risiko des wirtschaftlichen Wachstums sprach. Jetzt heißt es in der Bank, FRS den Leitzins bis zum Ende des Jahres ohne Änderung im Bereich von 2% halten solle. Der Chefökonom sagte, „Unsre Meinung, dass besteht, die große Umschwung ist nicht richtig. Ereignisse, die am Finanzmarkt in den letzten Jahren geschehen waren, haben Unruhe vor der Stabilität des Finanzsystems in den USA ausgelöst. Die Unruhe vergrößert die Risiko des negativen Zusammenhangs zwischen härteren finanziellen Bedeutungen und langsamertem Wachstum“. Trotz der gestern bekanntgegebenen Inflationdaten in den USA war der amerikanische Dollar kurzzeitig gegenüber dem Euro auf zu $1.5868 angestiegen und testierte den in der Konsolidation Korrekturtief. Nachfrage in diesem Bereich war genug groß und der Dollar braucht mehr Impuls, um einen Bärtrend des EURUSD zu überwinden. Vorschläge liegen um $1.5910. Nachfrage befinden sich bei $1.5940/50. Interesse für Kauf bleiben in einer Spanne zwischen $1.5870 und 65 mit dem Stopp oben.

Pregled Deviznoga Trzista

Malo više od ujutru se nalazi euro u srijedu. obćeeuropski novac trguje na razini $1,5934 koja je na razini početka ujutru. Tržište se je uzdržavalo pored veoma važnim podacima inflacije u SAD-u, je kazao trader. Dakle općepriznana marka otpora na razini $1,60 trenutno odbija napade eura. Prema riječima tradera, za euro treba više snažniji poticaj spolja da pribije tu razinu.

Ta potencija ima podatke iz SAD-a. U gledištu već stoji comsumer price iz SAD-a. Osim toga bit će oćekivani Industrial Production i Capasitz Use. Japanski Yen nastavlja oporavljenje od posljednje 4 dana i podigao se prema eurima do Y165,83. Trader je kazao da nije očekivano oporavljenje japanskoga Yena, pošto je japanski urad pogled na porast mnogo spustio. Međutim je japanski Yen pao od siječnja od Y150 do oko Y170, i sadašnje oporavljenje traderi smatraju kao privremeno.

Today's Market View - GBPUSD

The British Pound dropped as claim account in GB came in weaker than expected. The number of unemployment with 15.500 in June is much worse than expected (consensus: +10.000). It is the worst fall since December 1992. ILO-unemployment was down in May to 5,2% (expected 5,3%). Average earnings in May including bonus was 3,8% and more than expected. The British economy is cooled down by surging inflation pressure. The British Pound quoted against the American Dollar at low at $2,0039 and landed just on the 38,2% Fibonacci correction level of November/January low at $2,0035. The support line is at 2,0025 of April high. GBPUSD junped up to $2.0155 mark, then a little recovered to the 23.60% Fibonacci correction level. There is a strong resistance zone at $2,0150-90. Above this zone a resistance line at 2,0240 stands before upside movement of the currency pair. A break of this line confirm bullish trend of the British currency.

Pregled Deviznoga Trzista - USDCAD

Kao su očekivali mnozi traderi, je banka Kanade danas ostavila kamatnu stopu bez promjenja da je podržavalo nako stuštanje tečajeva USDCAD. Podržku je pružio također čuvan utisak na amerčki dolar. Tečajni par trenutno testira ponude na razini C$0.9985/80. Proboj na dole otvorit će put kretanju tečajeva ka C$0.9960, potem ka C$ 0.9930/20. Kako računaju analitici BBH je tehnička slika ukazuje na rizik boljšega stuštanja. Prva cil „bulla“ može biti razina „low-a“ maja na padu deviza. Međutim daljna cil mora biti na padu razina low-a veljača C$0.9710. Ponude USDCAD ostavaju oko C$1.0020 i na razini C$1.0070.

Devisenanalyse - AUDUSD

Der australische Dollar steigt weiter an. Der Angriff an den Widerstand im Bereich von $0.9840 kann sich den Weg zur seit 1982 beobachtete Parität bahnen. Aus charttechnischer Sicht befindet sich der Tagesstochastik im Überkaufsbereich und vermehrt wurde das Risiko zur Korrektur, aber der Tagesmomentum weist auf einen Bull-Trend hin.

RES 4: $1.0255 Analogie der Bewegung zwischen $0.4851 und $0.7989, vom Tief des Jahres 2006 gebaut
RES 3: $0.9840 50% vom Anstieg von 1973 bis 2000
RES 2: $0.9839 Intraday-Hoch
RES 1: $0.9829 2% Umschlag

Aktualer Preis: $0.9824

SUP 1: $0.9677 5-täglicher Durchschnitt. 1% Umschalg
SUP 2: $0.9635 10-täglicher Durchschnitt
SUP 3: $0.9585 21-täglicher Durchschnitt
SUP 4: $0.9530 55-täglicher Durchschnitt

Today's Market View - GBP

GBPUSD

The British currency is further much in demand and after break above offers at the level at $1.9960 ad near $1.9975/85. Bulls tested strength of orders set at $2.0000/10. The Pound reached the mark at $2.0020, where the currency movement was stopped. Dealers explained it by large interest for sell near an option barrier at this level. They pay attention, too, that an Asian official account played a role of a Pound-seller that kept back an upside movement of the currency pair. In the same time GBPUSD is actively bought by an American investment house and the mood at the market remain positive yet. But there seem to be lots of barriers to continue the upside movement. Dealers speak about orders for sell at the level at $2.0030 and near an option barrier at $2.0050/60 following offers at $2.0020. Bids remain near $1.9980/70 and at the level at $1.9950 and at $1.9930/20.

From the chart technical view the daily stochastic is in the overbought zone and the risk of correction is increased. Meanwhile the daily momentum is rising. The Pound trades now with $2.0082.

EURGBP

Growth in daily indicators supports a break of upper limit of the figure “triangle” from April. Mood became better and risks to hit a new record high remains as the single European currency afterwards fell down.

RES 4: stg0.8100/20 historical high of 16 Apr., 2% envelope
RES 3: stg0.8040 1% envelope
RES 2: stg0.8035 highs of 21 Mai and 9 Jun.
RES 1: stg0.8021 high of 11 Jul.

Current quotation: Stg0.7952

SUP 1: stg0.7860/92 Bollinger Bands, 1% envelope, 100-day moving average, base of the figure “triangle”
SUP 2: stg0.7849 low of 19 Jul.
SUP 3: stg0.7823/35 low of 8 and 30 Mai
SUP 4: stg0.7795 2% envelope

Pregled Deviznoga Trzista - GBPUSD

Funta ostava više od 5, 21 i 100-dnevnoga promjenljivoga prosjeka koji prolazi na razini $1.9814, $1.9787 i $1.9797 odnosno. Ali signali medvjedeve divergencije na dnevnoj grafici predpostavlja riziko spuštanja u srednjoročnom perspektivu. Važni odpori prolaze na razini $1.9956/63.

RES 4: $2.0192 high 27 mžujka
RES 3: $2.0022/28 high 21 travnja, 1%-na konverta
RES 2: $2.0002/05 61.8% Fibonacci sa $2.0391, high 1 srpnja
RES 1: $1.9956/63 high 11 srpnja, linija otpora sa 28 studenja, 200-dnevnji promjenljivi prosjek

Aktualna cijena: $1.9886

SUP 1: $1.9796 linija potpora sa 9 srpnja, 100-dnevnji promjenljivi prosjek
SUP 2: $1.9625/50 1%-na konverta, 61.8% Fibonacci među $1.9416 - $2.0005, low 7 srpnja
SUP 3: $1.9588 low 23 lipnja
SUP 4: $1.9430/68 2%-na konverta, low 16 i 17 lipnja

Devisenanalyse - EURGBP

Das Währungspaar EURGBP hat seine neue Woche mit positiver Stimmung begonnen, zeigend die Strebung zur Überwindung der Vorschläge im Maximumbereich am Freitag bei stg0.8020. Aber Anwärtsversuche nach oben ist nicht geschafft. Das ließ die von der Bericht von der spanischen Grupo Santander über den Kauf der Firme „Alliance & Leicester“ unterstützte Kurskorrektur fortgehen. Im Rahmen der Abwärtsbewegung des Währungspaares hat den Bären gelungen, Vorschläge im Bereich von stg.0.7990/80 zu testieren, wo die Kursbewegung angehalten wurde. Nach der Bekanntgabe aus Großbritannien von der Inflation der Erzeugerpreise hat EURGBP zugelegt. Das Cross hat geschafft, über die Figur zu erholen, aber der Anstieg war instabil. Trotz der Angabe aus Santander/ A&L vom Ausschluß des Aktionwechsels einer spanischen Aktion zu 3 britannischen ließ der Euro den Abwärtstrend fortzusetzen und handelt zurzeit mit um stg0.7985. Nach Analystenmeinung liegen Votschläge bei stg0.8020/35 und um stg0.8005/10. Weitere Offer liegen bei stg0.8050. Nachfrage nach dem Euro/Pfund liegen in der Nahe vom Sessiontief und bei stg0.7970.

Devisenanalyse - USD

Das Währungspaar Dollar/Franc steigt weiter bei Beginn des europäischen Marktes und erreichte die Marke von Chf1.0237. Vorschläge liegen im Bereich von Chf1.0240 bis zum Freitagshoch um Chf1.0300. Vorschläge befinden sich bei Chf1.0145 und Chf1.0110 mit Stops. Analysten aus UBS sagten, Dollar/Franc könne zur Parität in Hisicht auf die beherrschte an den Finanzmärkten Unklarheit erholen. Im dritten Quartär könne das Währungspaar die Marke von 1.09, im vierten die von 1.10 und im ersten des Jahres 2009 die von 1.14 erreichen.

Nach Angaben aus CFTC haben Spekulanten ihre reine Longpositionen im EURJPY reduziert. An den Future-Märkten die Zahl der reinen Positionen im Euro wurde bis zu 24 007 Verträgen im Vergleich von 27 683 in der letzten Woche vermindert. Währungs-Spekulanten am Chicago Markt haben ihre kurzen Positionen im Dollar um 4 Mio in dieser Woche verringert. Aber Analysten aus ABN-Amro schätzten, mit Blick auf Marktvolatilität die letzt Tage wurden kurzen Positionen im Dollar auf Rechnung Longpisitionen im Euro und im australischen Dollar.

Today's Market View - GBPUSD

The American Dollar moved up in the Asian market since investors related to measures of the American government to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with careful optimism. In the last week the market was shocked by information that two financial institutes financed by the state can be nationalized. After that the government announced the purchase of a national creditor IndyMac that suffered losses. Today the market recovered position, reacting to the operations, undertaken by the US government on Sunday and, directed to stabilisation of the situation.

At the beginning Dollar/Yen fell to the minimum to Y105.96 because for fear of financial stabilisation in the US. Then the currency pair rebounded its position to 106.71 as FRS and US Treasury described the plan of recovering lost confidence. Exporters sell the Dollar above Y106.70, bids at the level of option barrier, existing at the level at Y105.800-90. Euro/Dollar hit a new record high above the 5-day maxima at $1.5949. But the Dollar strengthened by operations and announcement of the US government recovered its position and the pair quoted now at $1.5874. In the European market the Dollar keeps its position in the Asian market.

The Chart in GBPUSD forms bearish divergence, but the Pound keeps position above 21-day moving average which gives additional support for 5-day moving average at $1.9780/00. A support line of envelope goes through at the level $1.9625/50 and Fibonacci below.

RES 4: $2.0192 maximum of 27 Mar.
RES 3: $2.0022/28 maximum of 21 Apr., 1% envelope
RES 2: $2.0002/05 61.8% Fibonacci, maximum of 1 Jul.
RES 1: $1.9956 maximum of 11 Jul. and 200-day MA

current price: $1.9851

SUP 1: $1.9796 промежуточная поддержка от 9 июля
SUP 2: $1.9625/50 1% envelope, minimum of 7 Jul.
SUP 3: $1.9588 minimum of 23 Jun.
SUP 4: $1.9430/68 2% envelope, minima of 16, 17 Jul.

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Devisenanalyse - USDJPY

Beginn des heutigen Marktes am Freitag halt sich der Dollar an der Unterkante der Spanne von gestern. Unterdessen übt Besorgnis über die Stabilität der Finanzsektor in den USA weiter negatives Eindruck auf Stimmung der Anleger. Aus Mangel an wichtigeren Veröffentlichung schätzen Marktteilnehmer die Rede des Vorsitzenden FRS Bernanke und des US-Schatzamt Paulson bezüglich zwei größeren Immobilienkreditoren. Die Beamte erklärte im US-Bundestag, sie haben alles mögliches gemacht, um Märkte zu beruhigen. Aber Anleger kaufen den Dollar vor der Veröffentlichung der Bericht der größeren Unternahmen wie Citigroup und Merrill Lynch nicht. Negative Ausgabe können eine neue Welle des Dollar-Verkaufs erregen. Die Hauptwährungspaare konsolidieren sich in den Spannen, trotz häufiger Schwankungen in den Aktien- und Rohstoffmärkten, die Unklarheit der Märkte aufweist, sagte die Analysten aus United Overseas Bank. Die Währungspaar USDJPY pendelt in einer engen Spanne zwischen Y106.90 und Y107.13, annähernd sich der Unterkante. Die Nachfrage von japanischen Importeuren, die das Währungspaar beitragen, den Bereich von Y107.10 zu überwinden.

Pregled Deviznoga Trzista - GBPUSD

Posle pokušaja penjanja je britanska funta testirala današnji minimal na razini $1.9715/10, koja je zadržala pokret devize, što navodilo “bull-ima” optimizam. Zbog toga tečajevi GBPUSD su probili ponude na razini $1.9760/55 i nastavlja rasti do razine oko $1.9782. Dealeri primjećuju da porastu funte pomagala je ojačana prodaja američkog tečaja protiv eura. U to vrijeme naružbe na prodaju na razini %1.9780/85 smetaju porast britanske funte. Probijanje ove razine otvorit će put ka $1.9800. Prema dealerima podaci iz stambenoga tržišta signaliziraju realnu opasnosti recesije u Velikoj Britaniji. S obzirom da se bazna inflacija ne ostava ne jako visoka Bank of England neće samo povisiti kamatnu stopu s obzirom na slabljenje aktivnosti biznesa ali i obnovit će njeno polaganje sljedeće godine.

Devisenanalyse - AUDUSD

Die heute ausgegangenen Ausgabe aus Australien war mit Blick auf Ansteig der Zahl neuer Arbeitsplätze von 25 600 auf 29 800, die um 10 000 mehr als die Experte erwartet haben war, unerwartet positiv für die nationale Währung. Den guten Einfluss auf die Marktteilnehmer übte die Reduzierung Arbeitslosenzahl auf 4.2% gegen erwartete 4.3%. Die Währungspaar AUDUSD reagierte auf die Ausgabe mit Anstieg über $1.9600. Zurzeit halt die australische Währung bei $0.9603, erhaltend Unterstützung bei $0.9590/85, wo vorher viele Nachfrage aus der amerikanischen Investitionsbank. Dabei befinden sich weitere Nachfrage bei $0.9550/40. Der Devisenstrategen aus Westpac beziehen neutrale Stellung in Hinsicht auf die kurzfristige Perspektive der AUSUSD. Trotz der positiven Wirtschaftsstatistik empfangen Marktteilnehmer keinen besonderen Optimismus im australischen Markt. Aus technischer Sicht scheinen neutral die Indikatoren wie Stochastic und Momentum.

Today's Market View - EURUSD

EURUSD attempted to climb up after inactive trade in the Asian Markets and, breaking the maxima of 7th and 9th July, reached the figure at $1.5763. But after that the currency pair sharply changed its trajectory under pressure of sell and returned to the night low to $1.5720/15 which tried to support bull-traders. Then the Euro marked the intraday minimum of $1.5700. Rebounded a little, Downside trend of the Euro isn’t weakened yet.

In the statement of European Central Bank ( ECB ), demand for the Euro was reduced because of Euro course rise and governments and financial institutions increased US Dollar reserve. Percentage of Euro reserve in the world was down 1% from Dec.2006 to Dec.2007, reported ECB. The quotation EURUSD was up 12% and the Dollar is relatively cheaper to be borrowed.

According to the Bureauof the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis BlueChip Economic Indicators, because of high oil price, reduction of worker market, fall of stock price and continuous subprime crisis the US economy is already in recession or must be in recession in the second half of this year. 54.5% economists consider that the US economy already fell into recession or fall into it, reported BlueChip Economic Indicators. In the last time the number of economists was 46.5%.

Analiz Deviznoga trzista - GBPUSD i EURUSD

GBPUSD napreduje do razine $1.9766 i vjerjetno testirat će sljedeću razinu ponude $1.9770/80. Ako ta razina bide probijena, otvorit će put ka 1.9800, mada neki traderi primječuvaju postojanje interesa na razini $1.9785.

U tečajevima EURUSD je američki dolar gubio na vrijednosti i pao do $1.5726. Trenutno tečajevi se nalaze na razini 1.5712, ali aktivnost na tržištu jako niska daje okarakterizirana za ljetno tržište. Traderi još raspravljaju intervenciju tržišta Južnom Korejom. Kada je korejska centralna banka aktivno i u velikoj količini prodavala dolar, neki su mislili da ona je istupila kako pradavac evra tijekom trgove sesije na razini 1.5700. Ponude ostaju na razini 1.5725/30. Prema traderima su tečajevi više potrebni.

Devisenanalyse - GBPUSD

ABN Amro schätzt, dass der Pfund im langfristigen Perspektive schwach ist. Seine Unfähigkeit zur Überwindung des Bereichs 2.0000/28/45 und die Abstieg unterhalb des Unterstützungsbereichs von 1.9846 bekräftigt den Blick. Wenn die Währungspaar von GBPUSD die Widerstandslinie von Fibonacci bei 1.9646 - 1.9830 nicht brechen kann, soll man die Abwärtsbewegung der britischen Währung auf zu 1.9486, 19147 erwarten.

Der Pfund steigt weiter in Hinsicht auf Nachfrage von den US-Investitionsbank, die die im Bereich von $1.9720 stehenden Offer überwältigen kann. Das Währungspaar kannte Intradayhoch bei $1.9746 aufstellen, aber die Offer um $1.9750 hielten die Aufwärtstrend. Nach der Meinung von Dealer, im Markt noch besteht die positive Stimmung. Zurzeit handelt der Pfund mit $1.9725. Die Offer befinden sich bei $1.9770/70 und die Bids liegen bei $1.9710/00 und $1.9670/50.

Die Tagesindikatoren wie Momentum, Stochastc scheinen charttechnisch die Aufwärtstrend neutralisieren zu sollen. Der 1S Stochastic scheint ganz neutral. Obwohl zeigen MACD und Momentum auf diesem Chart die schwache Aufwärtsbewegung, immernoch bleibt MACD im negativen Bereich.

Today's Market View - EURUSD

Today the European trade may be more interesting. Economic Calendar is full of important events, each of that can be a catalyst to currency course movement. In spite of creeping oil price in April Germany showed high figures of export. In May the situation is fully changed. The published figure is worse enough than consensus (-3.2 against the consensus 0). As a result the single European currency slipped against the main world currencies.

In the beginning of the European session EURUSD slipped to $1.5700 after testing intraday maximum at $1.5726. Analysts talked about oil price fall, strengthening of European stocks in the markets and South Korea’s Dollar-selling for market intervention in Asian markets exerting influence on the currency pair and weighed down against the greenback.

But the Dollar extends losses as oil price rebounded after Iran testing some long and medium-range missiles. Analysts saw it might exert short-term influence on the currency market which has more anxiety about the global economic slowdown and surging inflation. In his speech European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet noted intensified inflation risk.

In technical view shot-term impact factors disturb currency movement trend, but after EU rate change and Trichet’s announcement the currency pair shows a sideward movement. Daily stochastic falls near oversold zone and momentum seems neutral. The market is easy to be influenced by short-term influence factors.

Dnevna Tehnicka Analiza - USDJPY

Spuštanje cijene na naft dole psihološkoga barijera do 140 dolara jepomoglo dolaru da ojaci prema jedinstvenom europskom valutu i japanskom jenu. Bez obzira na pesmistične prognoze i negativnu dinamiku na tržistima Europe i Azije, gdje je Nikkei pao 2.5%, trgovina u SADu počela pozitivno. Ali situacija se može uskoro promijeniti, jer investori očekivaju početak publikacije važnih podataka iz SADa. S obzirom na visoke cijene na goriva i spuštanje povjerenja potrošača razumjemo strahu tradera, a istupanje presjednika američke središnje banke Bernanke nije izvršilo snažan utisak na tržište, tako što nije aludirao na daljše koreke monetarne politike. Tečajevi USDJPY raste umjesto s američkim burzom i došao je do razine Y107.42, probije stope i ponude u razini Y107.30. Dalje se ponude nalaze na razini Y107.50, gdje je tehnička linija otpora.

Devisenanalyse - EURUSD

Die europäische Gemeinwährung begann den europäischen Markt mit dem Bereich vin $1.5705. Eine bestimmte Rolle im Handel spielte die Nachfrage nach dem japanischen Yen, die zur Abwärtstrend von EURJPY geführte. Gleichzeitig übte die Nachfrage Einfluss auf den Euro gegenüber dem Dollar. Nach Schätzungen von Dealer haben die auf den Verkauf von Dollar gerichteten Interventionen von der Seite von den asiatischen Staaten zum Verkauf vom Euro zu Positionkorrektur am Beginn des europäische geprägten Handels gefürht. Zurzeit ist die Tagestief bei $1.5676. Bids liegen bei $1.5670/50 und Offers bei $1.5740, $1.5750/60, $1.5780.

Today's Market View - EURUSD

Against background of falling of oil price and “strong dollar” and expected soft monetary politics in the Euro zone the greenback inches up against the main currency. According to analysts, published data in the Euro zone is being declined from the perspective of strict monetary politics in the Euro zone. In the UK the committee which begins from Wednesday may not accept such financial measures.

Nevertheless the American stock index DAW continue bear movement. Subprime crisis goes on strongliy to influence on American economics. Today the US will publish a series of economical data. In connection with Subprime crisis traders pay attention to Pending Home Sales Index and Pending Home Sales change. If data will be strongly declined from the consensus, the forex market must be dynamically moved in spite of the US official strong dollar politics. Today there is no publication from Euro zone, the US and Japan, nevertheless high oil price begins extend bad influence on world economy and the markets, not only currency, but also stock and another, sometimes lose sense of their direction.

Stochastic on the daily chart in the currency pair EURUSD confirms candle-stick model “bear absorption” formed on Thursday that conditions on movement of 21-day moving average at $1.5620 and Fibonacci 50% level at %1.5607. A breakdown leads to the level of 100-day moving average and 1% envelope to $1.5560/85. The first resistance is at the level of $1.5740/68.

RES 4: $1.6065/75 2% envelope
RES 3: $1.6020 maximum of 22 Apr.
RES 2: $1.5910 1% envelope, maximum of 3 Jul., Upper line of Bollinger bands
RES 1: $1.5740/68 5-day moving average, Support line from 13 Jun.

current price: $1.5707

SUP 1: $1.5607/20 50% Fibonacci and 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5585 1% envelope
SUP 3: $1.5560 100-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.5462 minimum 30 Jun.

Technical Analysis - USDJPY

n this week an upside trend, beginning from the speech of the president of European Central Bank (ECB) Triche after rate up 0.25% to 4.00% in spite of negative data on the labour market in the US, continues in this week and greenback extends gains against main European currencies like the Euro and the Pound. In the Asian market EURUSD tested the minimum at $1.5628, but soon rebounded to $1.5648 by buying from Asian state founds. USDJPY broke the session high at Y106.67, hitting the session high at Y107.25.

Analysts made up a conclusion that the cause of Euro down was Triche’s speech just after rate up 0.25%. Traders took the speech not enough decisive and doesn’t give any hope of further monetary politics in the Euro zone and pointed at possible reduction of economic activity. In fact indexes of economical activity in the Euro zone show negative pictures. France and Italia are fully in the negative zone that point to coming reduction of economy. So is the US. ISM (service) index in the US fell to 48.2. In this week a speech of US central bank is expected and traders wait for more or less clear allusion of further monetary politics. If there is no comment on monetary politics in a speech, the expectation for Dollar consolidation will disappear. Taking into account lip-service of US president who want to support “strong Dollar”, Mr Bernanke may speak something about rate politics.

From point of technical view, the American Dollar tested against the Japanese Yen Y107.65 which is the same level of 200-day moving average. If USD confidently goes through the level, the break must pave the way to the June and February minima at Y108.58 and Y108.61. The greenback has now upside trend from the beginning of the European session. Stochastic and Momentum are in this moment giving a negative sign that means possible correction of currency course in a short-term perspective.

Devisenanalyse

1.5890. В центре внимания предстоящий отчет по рынку труда в США и пресс-конференция Трише. Офера по евро/доллару расположены выше 1.5900 до 1.5920. Далее на $1.5930 и $1.5950. Биды на $1.5860/50.

Nach der Zinsentscheidung der Europäischen Zentral bank zur Zenserhöhung um 25%ist die gemeinsame europäische Währung von 1.5900 bis auf 1.5882 gefallen. Die einige Trader rechneten mit der Zinserhöhung um 0.5% mit Rücksicht auf die aggressive Kommentare vom EZB-Präsidenten. Zurzeit handelt die Währungspaar im Niveau bei $1.5890. Im Blick stehen der Bericht von der US-Arbeitsmarkt und die Press-Konferenz vom EZB-Vorsitzenden. Offers für EURUSD liegen über $1.5900 bis 1.5920. Die weitere liegen bei $1.5930 und $1.5950. Bids liegen bei $1.5860/50. Zurzeit die Währungspaar nach der Zinsentscheidung mit $1.5891.

Widerstände
$1.5923 - 2% Umschlag
$1.5937 - Oberkante der Bollinger Bänder
$.15997 - Tageshoch vom 22.Apr.

Unterstützungen
$1.5764 - Oberkannte des 1% Umschlags
$1.5738 - 61.8% Fibonacci
$ 1.5652 - 50% Fibonacci

Today's Market View - EURUSD

Before 1 month the chairperson of the European central bank ( ECB ) made an aggressive statement, which pointed out his intension to fight against inflationary pressures. The statement moved Euro up 200 points. Today before rate decision and press conference of Mr Triche we ask questions: What surprise Mr Triche prepared in this time? Rate up 25 basic points for anti-inflationary measures is already taken in account in the current course of the Euro. But if investors and another market participants make up a conclusion that the ECB tends to increase its interest rates follow months, the single European currency may test the historical high at $1.6020, but if rate up ends once, the Euro may extend losses. According to analysts, the CPI in Euro Zone points twice more than the aim expected by Triche. A publication of unemployment in the US gives anxiety of traders. If Triche’s comment is aggressive and unemployment disappointing them, the Euro can quickly go through the figure $1.6000 before Triche will start answering to questions.

On Wednesday EURUSD trades at $1.5778, near the upper limit of diapason between $1.5775 and $1.5888. The Euro is in demand after a little weakening in the European session. Offers are at yesterday’s maximum at $1.5891. The option barrier at $1.5900 is protected. Additional offers are set at $1.5920 with stops above.

From the point of technical view a brake of 76.% Fibonacci at $1.6020-$1.5287 improve a perspective. Furthermore a widening of Bollinger bands points at the possibility in further upside movement of the currency course. Bulls aim at the historical high. Daily stochastic moves in overbought zone, but there are some signs pointing to temporary neutralisation of upside movement before ECB rate decision, so now’s currency course has already took into account rate up of ECB. Momentum and MACD show long-term upside trend, but in short time seem neutral.

RES 4: $1.6997 maximum of 22 Apr.
RES 3: $1.5940 upper band of Bollinger bands
RES 2: $1.5923 2% envelope
RES 1: $1.5892 maximum of 2 Jul.

current quotation: $1.5879

SUP 1: $1.5766 1% envelope
SUP 2: $1.5686 support line from 13 Jun.
SUP 3: $1.5638 100-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5613 21-day moving average

Today's Market View

In European session yesterday USDJPY is quoted in a narrow range. At the beginning the greenbacks traded at Y105.80 as short covering and dollar-buying against the single European currency. But the American dollar hit a low at Y105.30 as the European and American stock fell. After recording the low the American dollar recovered to Y105.50 by Cross-Yen buy. The Euro hit a high at $1.5810 as traders sold the Dollar against the Euro. The Euro-rising is supported by climbing oil price in future markets. The Japanese Yen moved up against the Euro to Y166.10 as the Yen extended gains versus the greenbacks, but the Euro rebounded to the level at Y166.60 as the single European currency rose against the Dollar.

The Euro is much in demand before the interest rate decision of the European Central Bank (ECB). Traders speak about purchase of the single European currency by long-term European investors and short-term hedge funds, expecting the rate up in the Euro zone tomorrow. In this moment the Euro against the Dollar moved up to $1.5840. The EURJPY which fell to the level Y157.10 rebounded to the level of Y158.30. In EURUSD offers are at the level of $1.5840/50 with stops at 1.5840. The level at $1.5844 is the high in a rally between 1.5285 and 1.6020 from 8 Jun. The level of $1.5847 is the same as 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement from the historical high at $1.6020 to $1.5285. From the point of fundamental view there is option barrier and stop orders above. Much offers are in the rage between 1.5880/00.

From the point of technical view the Euro tested the level of $1.5840/47, which is the high and Fibonacci level as well, against the American dollar that pointed out the possibility in falling to the support line at $1.5659 and to the 100-day and 21-day moving averages $1.5632 and $1.5596. Daily stochastic tends to weaken and returns from overbought zone. Daily momentum is now giving a little negative signals that shows temporary correction in the currency pair.

RES 4: $1.6020 maximum of 22 Apr.
RES 3: $1.5902 2% envelope
RES 2: $1.5884 upper band of Bollinger bands
RES 1: $1.5840/47 maximum of 9 Jun., 76.4% Fibonacci at $1.6020-$1.5287

Current quotation: $1.5803

SUP 1: $1.5659 support line of 13 Jun.
SUP 2: $1.5600 21-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5520 100-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.5467/71 minima of 18, 19, 23 Jun.

Today's Market View - USDJPY

In Asian Forex Market the Japanese Yen was climbing up and traded at the level of Y105. In the second half of market against the background of the widespread rumour that some institutions would be ranked down and the oil price moved up $1 the currency pair the Japanese currency extended gains against the greenbacks. The statement of RBA, Australian central bank, which seemed soft to traders, leaded Yen-strengthening against Australian Dollar.

EURJPY demonstrated falling to the European session on Monday. In the Asian session the European common currency traded in the narrow range between Y167.05 and 39. But at the beginning of the European session Euro extended losses and was down to Y166.50 and was now recovered to the level of 166.70.

Daily stochastic fell down into oversold zone that point out increasing risks of correction of currency course. Daily momentum still exits on the negative zone and continues bear’s trend. But some factors show risks of recovering the course.


RES3: 107.15 21-day moving average
RES2: 106.30 maximum of 09 Jun.
RES1: 106.07, 24 1% envelope and 5-day moving average

current price : Y105.73

SUP1: 105.52 50-day moving average, 74% Fibonacci retracement
SUP2: 105.06 minimum of 06 Jun.
SUP3: 104.52, 43 minimum of 08 and 01 Jun.
SUP4: 103.64 61.8% Fibonacci retracement