Today's market view

EURUSD has as before an upward trend. The expectation that US-conjunction data published in this week can fall below consensus and the increase of interest rate of EU Centralbank on Thursday may make the currency course climb up more strongly. In the Asian session EURUSD traded in a narrow range. After breaking thorugh the level $ 1.5800 and trades now at the level of $ 1.5830, demonstrating an ascending movement. Dealers speak about general weakening of US currency, which was caused by new attempts of rising price on oil quoted now $142.32 for barell. From the point of veiw of traders dollar selling is observed at the level from $1.5815 to $1.5850. While the European common currency remains relatively below, the historical high of $1.6020 remains in security.

From the point of technical analysis view daily stochastic exists on the overbough area, which signals risks of correction in short-term perspective. It is confirmed by momentum, approaching to 100-point level on short-term charts. Inspite of these risk factores the daily indicators point out ascending movement in the long run. A barrier of further upward movement may be massive resistance at the level of $1.5845. A support line is at $1.5750.

RES 4: $1.6020 maximum of 22.April
RES 3: $1.5871 upper band of Bollinger bands
RES 2: $1.5950 2% envelope
RES 1: $1.5840 maximum of 9 June

Current quotation: $1.5800

SUP 1: $1.5750 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5620 10-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5570 21-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.5467/90 minimum of 18, 19, 23 June, 1% envelope





30-Jun-08

Time Location [b]Indicator[/b] Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

[b]Time is CET and that of the trade terminal[/b]

03:15 Japan [b]PMI Manufacturing[/b] June 47.7 46

09:00 Japan [b]Construction Orders[/b] May % -8.4 -25.2

09:00 Japan [b]House Starts[/b] May % -3.8 -8.7 -6.5

12:30 United Kingdom [b]Consumer credit[/b] May Bln 1 1.122R 1.376

12:30 United Kingdom [b]Mortgage Approvals[/b] May k 51 58 42

12:30 United Kingdom [b]Mortgage Lending Data[/b] May Bln 6 6.151R 4.073

13:00 Euro Zone [b]Inflation Report[/b] June % 3.9 3.7 4

16:30 Canada [b]GDP m/m[/b] April % 0.3 -0.2

17:00 United States [b]NAPM-NY[/b] April -- -- 419.8

17:45 United States [b]Chicago PMI[/b] April -- 48 49.1

Technical Analysis - USDJPY

The statement of FOMC and published instruction made market participants review their expectations on interest rate change in the US. Possibility of interest rate decreace in August is significantly reduced and American state bonds became less profitable that exerts pressure on the currency course of greenbacks. Therefore the possibility of interest rate increase in September remains high.

The future market expects Federal fund rise 25 basic punkts in this moment with 33% possibility. Before FOMC the percentage was 48%. 100% expectations is shown on interest rate up in September.

[USDJPY]

Daily Stochastic points out downward trand after turing from overbuy zone and break out failure near February maxima. 10-day momentum signals risks of position correction.


Y109.95 50% Fibonacci Retracement, maximum of 09.dec.2006
Y109.50 2% envelope
Y108.16 maximum of 14 feb., 1% envelope

Current rate: Y108.11 (09:54 CET)

Y107.80 5-day and 10-day moving averages
Y107.13/08 minimum of 20 June, 21-day moving average
Y106.57 38.20 % Fibonacci Retracement
Y106.34 200-day moving average
Y106.01 1% envelope




[EURUSD]

Индикаторы поддерживают прорыв 21-дневной скользящей средней, которая, в свою очередь, совершила бычье пересечение с 5-дневной скользящей средней в области ближайшей поддержки возле $1.5609 и $1.5545. 1% огибающая линия сместилась к уровню $1.5705.

RES 5: $1.5840/60 максимум 9 июня, 2% огибающая скользящей средней
RES 4: $1.5800/17 дневные максимумы конца мая
RES 3: $1.5745 верхняя граница дневной полосы Боллинджера
RES 2: $1.5705 1% огибающая скользящей средней
RES 1: $1.5685 часовой максимум

текущая цена: $1.5679

SUP 1: $1.5545/50 21-дневная скользящая средняя и линия поддержки от 13 июня
SUP 2: $1.5467/70 минимум 18,19,23 июня, 100-дневная скользящая средняя
SUP 3: $1.5437 61.8% коррекции от $1.5650-$1.5304, 100-дневная скользящая средняя
SUP 4: $1.5390 1% огибающая скользящей средней
SUP 5: $1.5304/09 минимум 13 июня, линия поддержки

Fibonacci Retracement

Fibonacci Retracement

One of the famous indicators named Fibonacci Retracement is based on the theory of the most talented Italian mathematician of the Middle Age.

He is called Leonardo of Pisa, known as Leonard Pisano, Leonardo Bonacci, Leonardo Fibonacci or simply Fibonacci. Fibonacci is posthumously given nickname of Leonardo and means a son of Bonacci (filius Bonacci) .

Fibonacci was born in Pisa, Italy. His father Guglielmo had a nickname Bonaccio meant “good natured” or “simple”. He was a trader and travelled around the Mediterranean area. Fibonacci grew up in Bugia, Algeria, where he learnt about the Hindu-Arabic numeral system. He continued his study further in Egypt, Syria and Greek under leading Arab mathematicians of his time. Leonardo became an amicable guest of the Emperor Frederick II, who enjoyed mathematics and science.

Fibonacci ratio known as Golden ratio is used in Financial markets as a financial indicator. This ratio, which is developed in arts and architecture and considered as the most beautiful ratio, might govern currency movement in the markets. The up and downward movement of currency rate as another nature appearances and as one of appearances in this world obeys golden ratio.

Let see technical analysis with Fibonacci Retracement.





Another technical analysis in the same chart.

Technical Analysis - EURUSD

EURUSD had traded near 21-day moving avarage from yesterday's evening and in the narrow range between 1.5527 and 1.5500, but today on the morning the current pair climb up from the 21-day moving average line and quoted at 1.5564. In this moment EURUSD slowly moves upwards against the background of repositioning before FOMC. Daily Momentum is under 100, but seems to be recovering and to be positive. Daily stochastik returns from overbuy zone and points out downward movement.


RES4 $1.5692 2% envelope
RES3 $1.5651 maximum of 20.May
RES2 $1.5623/29 maxima of 20 and 22.June
RES1 $1.5570 23.60% Fibonacci

Current rate: 1.5564 (CET)

SUP1 $1.5534 21-day moving average
SUP2 $1.5411/13 38.20% Fibonacci, 10-day moving average and minimum of 23.May
SUP3 $1.5455 minimim of 12.May
SUP4 $1.5443 minima of 15.May and 10.Mar.

Today's Market View - USDJPY

Despite the initial weakening, during the Asian session the currency pair Dollar/Yen was strengthened under the influence of demand from Japanese importers and Asian hedge funds. Dealers said that speculators who cut down positions on Friday, is now setting new positions before the meeting, FOMC, which will take place on Wednesday. Market participants are unsure about the tone of the final statement of FOMC, dealers do not recommend to trade actively before the declaration. They also inform that at the level of Y107.50-107.60 numerous orders of Japanese exporters to sell are positioned.

Some sources have reported that FRB would leave the US interest rate without changing, but refer to climbing inflationary pressures and no expectation of interest rate rise in the statement on 25 June. US economy seems to go through subprime crisis by financial politics like interest rate cuts, but recent price rises on petroleum and weak financial markets exert bad influence on the economy.

From the view of technical analysis the daily 14-day momentum is still in the positive zone, but has lack of upward impulse. The daily stochastic is now near oversell that shows position correction before the FOMC.



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[b]Economic Calendar[/b]

Time Location [b]Indicator[/b] Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

[b]Time is CET and that of the Trade Terminal [/b]

09:30 Germany [b]PMI - Services[/b] June 53.2 53.8

09:30 Germany [b]PMI Manufacturing[/b] June 53.2 53.6

10:00 Germany [b]IFO Index[/b] June 102.3 103.5

10:00 Germany [b]IFO Current[/b] June 109 110.1

10:00 Germany [b]IFO Expect[/b] June 96.5 97.3

10:00 Euro Zone [b]PMI - Services[/b] June 50.5 50.6

10:00 Euro Zone [b]PMI Manufacturing[/b] June 50.2 50.6

14:30 United States [b]National Activity Index[/b] May -- -1.17

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Devisenanalyse - EURUSD

Dealers sprechen von der Kräftigung des Verkaufs der amerikanischen Währung nach den Kommentaren von einem iranischen Offiziels, dass die Zustimmung auf die Vermehrung der Ölproduktion im morgigen Treffen nicht erreichber sein würde. Deswegen war die Währungspaar aufgestiegen und wird derzeit bei $1.5613 in der Nahe von 23% des Fibonaccis gehandelt und versucht, die kräftige Stopzone um $1.5630 durchzusteigen. Offers liegen bei $1.5650, aber in den Bedingungen der Handel in den engen Spannen und der bullischen Stimmung werden Risiken der weiteren Erholung in Richtung an $1.58 bleiben, so Aussage von den Dealer. Der Schwächung des Dollar hat die Erscheinung der Empfehlung von der amerikanischen Bank zum Kauf der EURUSD bei 1.5550 mit dem Stop von $1.5440 und das erste Ziel ist $1.5850 und die nächste ist $.16350. Die tägliche Indikatoren wie Stochastik und Momentum zeigen sich neutral.

Trade Strategy

[b]Euro/Dollar[/b] The currency pair traded below thin Ichimoku clouds and the middle of a wide range, formed in mid-March. Today the situation may not be fundamentally changed, but we always assume the close of short positions in this month.

[b]Strategy[/b] To open long positions at 1.5535, to set stop below 1.5440. Short-term targets at 1.5580 and at 1.5650.

[b]Dollar/Yen[/] The chart is boring and disappointing. We still await the formation of peaks.

[b]Strategy[/b] To sell the currency pair at 107.85/108.05, to set stops over 108.70. A short-term target at 107.00, the next at 106.50.

[b]Pound/Dollar[/b] The currency pair broke through the Ichimoku clouds and is now testing a resistance, which is a trend line. Breakthrough today or on Monday may provoke "a short compression."

[b]Strategy[/b] To open small long positions at 1.9715, to add positions to the level of 1.9650, to set stops below at 1.9550. To add long positions in the case of certain upward breakthrough to above 1.9750. Targets are 1.9800/1.9850.

Market View - EUR

by

Euro/Dollar rapidly falls from maximums of the previous session. Dealers noted that strong sell of Euro in European session was provided by Asian account, whose appetite was quite high, so their Euro sell leaded to a drop to the current minimum rate at the level of $ 1.5520, and the downward pressure remains. General weakness of the Euro also is shown in other crosses, in particular, in the currency pair of Euro/Yen. The sell of Euro against the Japanese currency is so strengthened, that the European stock markets entered red zone in Thursday. A serious influence on EURUSD was made by consolidation USDCHF against a background of weakening of the Swiss currency after the SNB decision to retain the interest rate at the same level 2.75%. In this moment stops under $1.5520 is under thread and their execution stimulates new sales of highly demanded area in the region of $ 1.5460.



[b]Economic Calendar[/b]



19-Jun-08

Time Location [b]Indicator[/b] Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

[u]Time is CET and that of the Trade Terminal[/u]

01:30 Japan [b]Tankan Survey[/b] June -2 -2

08:15 Switzerland [b]Trade Balance[/b] May Mln 1532.1 1873.5

08:40 Japan [b]BoJ Governor Speaks[b] June

09:30 Switzerland [b]Swiss Rate Decision[b] June % 2.75 2.75 2.75

10:30 United Kingdom [b]PS net borrowing[/b] May Bln 9.3 8.519R 10.955

10:30 United Kingdom [b]PSNCR[/b] May Bln 6.5 6.25R 10.987

10:30 United Kingdom [b]Retail Sales[/b] May % -0.1 -0.3R 3.5

13:00 Canada [b]Core CPI m/m[/b] May % 0.3 0.3

13:00 Canada [b]Core CPI y/y[/b] May % 1.5 1.5

13:00 Canada [b]Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m[/b] May % 0.7 0.8

13:00 Canada [b]Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y[/b] May % 1.9 0.8

14:30 United States [b]Jobless Claims[/b] w/e k 375 384

14:30 Canada [b]Wholesale Trade[/b] April % 0.6 0.6

16:00 United States [b]Leading Indicators[/b] May % 0 0.1

16:00 United States [b]Philadelphia Fed[/b] June -10 -15.6

[b]During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and miximalization of losses before the news. [/b]

Technical Analysis - EURUSD

In early trading session in Europe Euro unexpectedly interrupted its upward movement, which started in Asian session. The dealers report that the word ECB council member manager Lorenzo Bini Smaghi could serve as a reason that "increase of the interest rate by 25 basic points may return the inflation to 2% level”. Such comments allow the possibility that EZB may increase the rate one time and market participants did not miss the chance to sell European common currency. Especially s the cross with the yen was strongly sold, putting pressure on the another crosses with the Japanese currency. The course Euro/Yen fell to a minimum near Y167.06 after the execution of stop in breaking level at Y167.20. According to dealers, now EUR/Yen has chance to continue falling to the level of more powerful bits at Y166.60. EUR/USD tested the figure at 1.5500 on downward movement, but was supported and protected from further losses by demand in this figure. Sure breakthrough of this point, dealers say, will pave the way for the return to the minimum of the previous session around $ 1.5460. Stops exist below $ 1.5450.

Technical Analysis - EURUSD

After the end of last week the currency pair Euro/Dollar came close to the dangerous figure at $ 1.5300 in the background of the Irish referendum. In Asian Session Euro attempted to recover its position. However, Euro/Dollar turned back its movement at the level of $ 1.5420, and the bears started offensive trade. Dealers noted that in early European Session lots of sell orders were set by Russian accounts. Despite pro-inflation comments of representatives of the ECB on Monday, Euro quoted $ 1.5344 during the fall and is now corrected to the level at $ 1.5365. Dealers reported demand in the zone of $ 1.5350 and the highly interest in buying in the area of Friday minima by $ 1.5304 as well as near $ 1.5285.

Momentum

The basic oscillator - Momentum

I would like to introduce the first oscillator called "Momentum". I'm sure that skillful traders often hear the name of this oscillator.

As technical indicators the momentum measures the rise / down “momentum” in price.

Because of simpleness of this oscillator, it has some weak points, but remains one of more useful ones or was developed to another indicators.



The most common use of this oscillator is that to buy over the 100 points on and to sell underthe line. It is more important is to compare the change in price movement and momentum.

For example, the momentum, which is now over the 100 points, goes further upward, the upward price momentum is growing more and more. On the contrary, the momentum, which is now under 100 points, falls down further under the now's point, the downward momentum is increased.

While the quotation is rising, but the momentum flatten its rise, it means weaking upward/downward trend.

In other words, the momentum and quotation show different, uncorresponding movements, the currency course may be sooner or later changed.

Technical Analysis - EURUSD

Euro/Dollar weighed down under the level of 1.5400, swallowing stops at the level of 1.5390. But the next stop-order zone at 1.5380 remained untouched. The currency pair has tested the low at 1.5386, now returned to the level of 1.5393. A clear breakedown under the stop level of 1.5380 may lead a descending movement to the previous minima level of 1.5365. Under the level there lie options at 1.5350, so in approaching to this level, orders for protecting the option level must be set by option-market traders. Daily Stochastik is coming into oversell, daily momentum shows downward movement.

Devisenanalyse - EURUSD

Täglichen Indikatoren weisen auf Wachstum hin, aber ihnen fehlt es an Glaubwürdigkeit. Unterdessen gangen Chart unter . Darum würde Euro durchsteigen das Rahmen des nächsten Widerstands in Form vom Durchschnitt von $1.5585/05 oder der Oberlinie des Kanals, der ein Unterstützungsbereich von $1.5369/89 darstellt. Der Bereich enthaltet in sich den 100-täglichen Durchschnitt, Monattief im Juni und 1% Umschlag des Durchschnitts.

RES 4: $ 1,5865 2% Umschlag
RES 3: $ 1.5840 Tageshoch vom 9. Juni und der aktuelle Oberband Bollinger Bänder
RES 2: $ 1,5710 1% Umschlag
RES 1: $ 1.5650 Tageshoch vom 10. Juni

Aktueller Kurs: $ 1.5450

SUP 1: $ 1.5440 Minima 10. Juni
SUP 2: $ 1,5389 1% Umschlag, Unterstützungslinie vom 8.Mai, 100-täglicher Durchschnitt
SUP 3: $ 1.5369 Tagestief vom 5.Juni, der Oberband der Billinger Bänder
SUP 4: $ 1,5232 50% Korrektur von aufsteigender Bewegung von $1.4444

Devisenanalyse - USDJPY

Trotz der anhaltenden allgemeinen Aufwärtstrend weisen die tägliche Chart deutlich darauf hin, dass die Dynamik beginnt zu verblassen. Da besteht die Gefahr der Konsolidierung im Bereich von Y104.50/106.41.

Res 4: Y108.58 Tageshoch vom 14. Februar
RES 3: Y107.47 61,8% Fibonacci von 114,64
RES 2: Y107.20 2% Umschlag
RES 1: Y106.41 Tageshoch vom 5. Juni

Aktueller Kurs: Y105.31

SUP 1: Y104.78 Tenkan-Linie
SUP 2: Y104.50 21-täglicher Durchschnitt und Kijun-Linie
SUP 3: Y103.90/00 Tagestief vom 3. Juni, 1% Umschlag
SUP 4: Y103.20 Obergrenze von der Ichimoku-Wolken

Technical Analysis - EURJPY

The dramatic restoration of Euro/Yen destroyed bear signals given by stochastik and momentum. The currency pair is testing the area near resistance, the channel peak of mid-May at Y165.64. The breakthrough will make it possible to test maximums in the range at Y166.65/167.68.

RES 4: Y167.56/68 maximums of 10 October and 7 November
RES 3: Y166.90 2% envelope
RES 2: Y166.65 maximum of 27 December
RES 1: Y165.64 resistance on 14 May

current price: Y165.41

SUP 1: Y163.50 5-day moving average
SUP 2: Y162.75 21-day moving average
SUP 3: Y162.08 support from 12 May
SUP 4: Y161.60/95 upper side (Senkou Span-A) Ichimoku clouds, 1% envelope

Devisenanalyse - EURGBP

Pound/Dollar fällt unter den 21-täglichen Durchschnitt, der jetzt als der erste Widerstand bei $1,9640 dient. In der Rolle des Widerstands ist die 50% Korrektur-Niveau von Rally von Mitte Mai. Die Indikatoren Stochastik und Momentum bildeten eine Bären-Kreuzung, das technische Bild bleibt nach wie vor schwach und signalisiert eine Abschwächung auf ein Niveau von Fibonacci und den ehemaligen Tagestief um $ 1.9550 und $ 1,9372.

RES 4: $ 1.9960/70 1% Umschlag, Tageshoch vom 21. April
RES 3: $ 1.9905 Widerstandslinie vom 9. November
RES 2: $ 1.9850 Tageshoch von 22. und 23. Mai
RES 1: $ 1.9680 Tageshoch vom 29. Mai, Durchbruchsniveau

Aktueller Kurs: $ 1.9628

SUP 1: 1.9602/06 Tagestief vom 2. Juni, ehemalige Widerstandslinie vom 14. März
SUP 2: $ 1,9548 1% Umschlag, 61,8% Fibonacci Korrektur
SUP 3: $ 1.9505 Tagestiefe von 7,8 Mai
SUP 4: $ 1.9372 Tagestief vom 14. Mai

Devisenanalyse - EURUSD

EURUSD

Europa handelt nach wie vor unter dem 21-täglichen Durchschnitt und dem Bereich von $1.5552, der 50% Fibonacci-Korrekturbereich der Mai-Rally entspricht. Im Zusammenhang mit der Bestätigung Bärenkreuzung im Tagesstochastik und Momentum bleiben Risiken einer weiteren Abwärtsbewegung.

Res 4: $ 1.5817/30 Tageshoch von 27. Mai, Oberband der Bollinger Bänder.
RES 3: $ 1.5749 ehemaligen Unterstützungslinie vom 8. Mai
RES 2: $ 1,5640 50% Fibonacci Korrektur von $ 1,5817 (an der Basis auf dem Niveau von $ 1.5463)
RES 1: $ 1.5570/92 21-täglicher und 5-täglicher Durchscnitt

Aktueller Kurs: $ 1.5536

SUP 1: $ 1.5463 Tagestief vom 30. Mai
SUP 2: $ 1.5398 Tagestief vom 14. Mai
SUP 3: $ 1.5287 Tagestief vom 8. Mai
SUP 4: $ 1,5232 50% Fibonacci Korrektur zwischen $ 1.4444/1.6020