MACD

MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence / Divergence, created by Gerald Appel in the 1960s. It is read as "Mac D (dee)" as usual but has no realtion to a hamburger shop somewhere.

It shows the difference between a fast and slow exponential moving average (EMA) of closing prices.

I perfer MACD, so the technical analysis gives relatively accurate information of the trade signals, as long as I use.


when you consider the price of tomorrow, which data is helpful, yesterday's data or data of 10 days before? Or in more extreme case yesterday's 1 dollar rising or those of 1 year before?

Of course, yesterday's rising of 1 dollar helps us to consider today's currency movement more than that of 1 year before.

MACD includes in its moving average this idea. And the name of MACD represents the characteristics of an abbreviation in English, i.e. “Moving Average Convergence / Divergence Trading Method”. On the base of moving average MACD adds another mathematic means to its arsenal.

Well, in MACD Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (as known as EMA) is employed. It applies weighting factors which decrease exponentially. The weighting for each older data point decreases exponentially, giving much more importance to recent observations while still not discarding older observations entirely. The graph at right shows an example of the weight decrease.

It is a little complex, but don't worry. On the trade terminal NetTradeX you do not have to calculate MACD, but it is automatically completed by your trade terminal. So we shall pay attention, how to trade, using this technical analysis.



Traide chance according to MACD is shown by golde cross and/or dead cross of MACD and its signal. In other words, MACD moves more quickly than the signal, so “buy signal” appears when MACD go through the signal from the bottom to the top, and to the contrary "sell signal” is observed when MACD moves from the top through the signal to the bottom.



Another way is a zero-based view. If MACD and the signal are over the zero line, the currency course may have a upward trend. If they are below the zero line, the course can be on the downward trend.

These two views help traders to set buy/sell positions adequately with a market trend.

Devisenanalyse - EURGBP

Der 21-tägliche Durchschnitt dient jetzt als Widerstand zusammen mit dem 5-täglichen Durchschnitt von stg0.7920/35. Nach einem Bären-Kreuzung am Tages-Stochastik besteht die Gefahr, die Zone stg0.7823/70 zu testieren, obwohl eine solche Bewegung für eine zusätzliche steigende Tendenz gehateltet werde. Eine zusätzliche Unterstützung liegt an der Trendlinie von der Mitte Februar in der Nähe von stg0.7891.

RES 4: stg0.8110 2% Umschlag
RES 3: stg0.8100 Tageshoch vom 16. April
RES 2: stg0.8035 Tageshoch vom 21. Mai, 1% Umschlag
RES 1: stg0.8020 Oberband der täglichen Bollinger Bänder

Aktueller Kurs: Stg0.7909

SUP 1: stg0.7882 Tagestief vom 28. Mai
SUP 2: stg0.7870 1% Umschlag
SUP 3: stg0.7823 Tagestief vom 8. Mai
SUP 4: stg0.7768/90 Korrekturdaten des Tagestiefs vom 1. Mai, 2% Umschlag

Devisenanalyse - USDJPY

Dass es dem Währungspaar gelang, den 21-täglichen Durchschnitt bei Y104.20 zuversichtlich durchzubrechen, zieht die Aufmerksamkeit des Marktes auf auf die unteren Ebenen. Die erste Unterstützung liegt bei Y103.75 und Y103.16 (5-täglichem Durchschnitt und die Unterstützungslinie ab 27. März). Im Fall des Durchbruchs von diesen Ebenen kann die Abwärtsbewegung bis auf den Tief von Y102.60 und auf die obere Grenze der Ichimokus Wolke um Y102.23 fortschreiten. Im Gegensatz soll der zuversichtliche Durchbruch von Y104.20 den Weg für eine Aufwärtsbewegung bis auf Y 105.43.

EE 4: Y107.47 61,8% Fibonaccis Korrekturbereich von Y114,64
RES 3: Y105.70 Tageshoch vom 2. Mai
RES 2: Y105.43 Tageshoch vom 14. Mai
RES 1: Y104.20 21-täglicher Durchschnitt

Aktueller Kurs: Y103.92

SUP 1: Y102.60 Tagestief von 9., 12. Mai
SUP 2: Y102.23/28 Obergrenze der Ichomoku-Wolke, Tagestief vom 18. April
SUP 3: Y101.94 38,2% Fibonaccis Korrekturbereich der aufsteigenden Bewegung vom Tief bei Y96.88
SUP 4: Y101.50 Untergrenze der Ichimoku-Wolke

Devisenanalyse - EURGBP

Stochastik auf dem Chart Euro/Pfund riskiert, einen Bärenkreuzung zu vollziehen, das das Risiko einer Korrektur auf den 21-täglichen Durchschnitt um stg0.7920 schafft. Allerdings bleibt die allgemeine Tendenz nach wie vor positiv und die Korrektur des Rückgangs kann für die Eröffnung neuer Long-Positionen verwendet werden.

RES 4: stg0.8125 2% Umschlag
RES 3: stg0.8100 Tageshoch vom 16. April
RES 2: stg0.8045 derzeitige Oberlinie der Bollinger Bänder
RES 1: stg0.8030 1% Umschlag

Aktueller Kurs: Stg0.7966

SUP 1: stg0.7920 21-täglicher Durchschnitt
SUP 2: stg0.7880 1% Umschlag
SUP 3: stg0.7800/23 derzeitige Unterlinie der Bollinger Bänder, Tagestief vom 8. Mai
SUP 4: stg0.7768 Korrekturdaten des Tagestiefes vom 1. Mai

Devisenanalyse - EURUSD

Der Euro erstarkte über dam Bereich von $1,5689 (23,6% Korrektur der Erholung vom Minimum bei $1.5287 auf zu $1,5814). Dennoch besteht das Risiko des Druchschlags nach unten: Die 1-Stunde-Indikatoren fallen wieder vom Überkaufsniveau, das schnelle 10-tägliche Momentum fang an, die Bottom-up-Dynamik auch zu verlieren. Der Durchschlag vom Bereich unterhalb $1.5683/89 signalisiert eine Rückkehr auf $1.5637, weiter zu $1,5560. Nach einem Durchbruch des letzten Niveau können die Perspektiven deutlich ins Wanken kommen. Die erste Unterstützung liegt an der Linie des 5-täglichen Moving Average bei $ 1,5740.

EE 4: $ 1,5935 2% Umschlag des MA
RES 3: $ 1.5884 Eröffnungshoch vom 24. April
RES 2: $ 1,5847 76,4% Fibonaccis Korrekturbereich von $ 1.6020
RES 1: $ 1.5814 Tageshoch vom 22. Mai

Aktueller Kurs: $ 1.5761

SUP 1: $ 1,5689 23,6% Fibonaccis Korrektur von $ 1.5287 $ bis 1.5814
SUP 2: $ 1.5613/37 Unterstützungslinie vom 8.Mai, Tagestief vom 21.Mai
SUP 3: $ 1,5560 21-täglicher Moving Average
SUP 4: $ 1,5465 1% Envelope

Moving Average

Perhaps, as Forex traders, you have ever heard “moving average”, the most simple tool for technical analysis for Forex traders. From this simple analytic tool of “moving average”, various another more difficult and complex methods of technical analysis occurred.

So this time we shall study “moving average”. First, please look at the figure below. What investors think of, when the currency price is on the red circle?



If the current price is the point “A”, many investors would think that “risen enough and it's time to correct the course”, so it's a human nature to take confirm his/her profit as soon as possible and fear to loose his/her profit. If the current price is the point “B”, the opposite situation.

However, in these points there were rising and falling movement and as a result they might miss chances for trading. Therefore, it is important to read trends in order to miss our opportunity for taking profit. The advantage to catch trends is that you can continue in cool blood holding your position regardless of temporary rising or falling movement on the market, if a trend points out upward or downward one.

A way to catch the trade, which traders uses for many years, is “moving average”. The simplest moving average is calculated by the average For example, if you want to know 5-day moving average, you have to calculate all 5-day close price and and divide the sum by 5. But on the trade terminal “NetTradeX” you do not have to calculate it, so the programme automatically does it for you.

There are various figures are used to calculate. 5,6,10,13,20,26,75 and so on. However, on the Internet we usually see the moving average of 5, 10, 20 and so on days.

According to the characteristics of moving average, of course, a short-term moving average is moving closer to current price than long-term moving average. Long-term moving average line should run slower and coming up with the current quotation.

Now, we see, how to use the moving average to define buy and sell signals. It is called “Golden Cross” buy and “Dead Cross” sell.

Golden Cross (buy) is when a short-term moving average passes through a long-term moving average line “from the bottom upwards”, that may mean that "basic trend is changed to upward trend" and you will set "buy" position.



In contrast to it, Dead Cross (sell) is when a short-term passes through a long-term moving average from top downwards, that shows the "underlying trend is changed to downward trend".

On the trend shows that there are large, it is effective when it is visible.

Of course, not all current movement is fit to these rules. In other words, Golden Cross to "sell signal", Dead Cross to "buy signal". One of the reasons, why it occurs, is the period of a using moving average. Every currency pair has its own characteristics, so you have to find proper moving averages.

In IFC Markets Trade Terminal NetTradeX you can easily set any period of moving average and change parameters of it.

Devisenanalyse - EURUSD

Der Druck auf den Euro/Dollar wurde nach der Veröffentlichung vom wöchentlichen Bericht über den Arbeitsmarkt in den USA gestärkt. Darin die Zahl der Arbeitslosen, die in der vergangenen Woche für den Anspruch auf Arbeitslosenunterstützung galten, sank um 9 000 zu 365 000 gegen die durchschnittlichen Prognosen zu 375 000. Währungspaar verschwachte bis zu $ 1.5730, aber Händler sprachen, dass das Interesse sei nicht groß und Handelsströme seien begrenzt. Das Währungspaar war wieder in einer früheren Minimum von etwa $ 1.5745 zurückgekommen. Die Bids in der Nähe von $1.5730 schützen den Weg zu einer höheren Nachfrage im Bereich von $1.5700/10. Unterdessen wurde Dollar/Yen zum Hoch von Y103.61 im Bereich für den Verkauf, der zwischen Y103.60/70 liegt, gestärkt.

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Devisenanalyse - USDCHF

Dollar/Franc multipled losses after the execution of the double peaks in this week. Now the currency pair traded under the key moving averages. DMI indicator is moving in the negative territory. Descending movement may be dominated until the rate trades below the level of a breakthrough at Chf1.0390. The target remains in the area at Chf1.0160.

RES 4: Chf1.0620 maximum of May
RES 3: Chf1.0439 10-day moving average
RES 2: Chf1.0444 21-day moving average
RES 1: Chf1.0381/90 5-day moving average, the level of a breakthrough double tops

current price: Chf1.0278

SUP 1: Chf1.0231 2% envelope
SUP 2: Chf1.0160 target of double tops
SUP 3: Chf1.0136 50% Fibonacci between Chf0.9651-Chf1.0620
SUP 4: Chf1.0021 76.4% Fibonacci between Chf0.9651-Chf1.0620

Devisenanalyse

EURGBP

While indicators on the chart Euro/Pound remain bull, there is a cause for concern: The cross can not confidently pass Fibonacci level at stg0.7973, stochastik risks to committ bull cross in the overbought zone.

RES 4: stg0.8100 maximum of April 16
RES 3: stg0.8090 2% envelope
RES 2: stg0.8020 current upper line of daily Bollinger bands
RES 1: stg0.8015 1% envelope

current price: Stg0.7947

SUP 1: stg0.7914 21-day moving average
SUP 2: stg0.7854 1% envelope
SUP 3: stg0.7823 minimum of May 8
SUP 4: stg0.7768 corection minimum of May 1


EURUSD
Daily stochastik continues giving the signals of bull divergence, showing a possible test of 21-day moving average and Fibonacci level at $1.5653. The last level is the key one, along with 1% envelope moving average as of Monday the pair kept growing. The initial support may be $ 1.5505 level.

RES 4: $ 1.5740 61.8% Fibonacci level
RES 3: $ 1.5706 a maximum of 25 April
RES 2: $ 1.5634/53 1% envelope moving average, 50% Fibonacci from $ 1.6020
RES 1: $ 1.5560 21-day moving average

current price: $ 1.5533

SUP 1: $ 1.5398 minimum of 14 May
SUP 2: $ 1.5310/20 intraday minimum of 1% envelope moving average
SUP 3: $ 1.5286 minimum of 8 May
SUP 4: $ 1.5232 50% Fibonacci from $ 1.4444

Devisenanalyse

Daily slow stochastik and 10-day momentum give ambiguous signals. A reaction to the level of Y105.70 may play the main role, but the rate has already dropped below 21-day moving average at Y104.20.

RES 4: Y107.47 61.8% of Fibonacci from 114.64
RES 3: Y105.70 maximum of 2 May
RES 2: Y105.43 maximum of 14 May
RES 1: Y104.96 76.4% of Fibonacci from Y105.70

current price: Y104.04

SUP 1: Y103.55 minimum of May 16
SUP 2: Y102.60 minumum of 9 May
SUP 3: Y102.23/28 upper limit of Ichimoku minumum of April 18
SUP 4: Y100.50 basic clouds Ichimoku

Devisenanalyse - EURJPY

Daily stochastik forms the bull cross that signals a stronger support than that of the currency pair Dollar/Yen. The first support is at Y161.61 from the line Kijun line of Ichimoku.

RES 4: Y164.72/96 2% envelope of moving average, maximum of 23 April
RES 3: Y164.40 76.4% Fibonacci level of downward correction of the movement from Y149.33 to Y169.05
RES 2: Y163.10 daily high of 5 and 7 May, 1% envelope
RES 1: Y162.48/56 21-day moving average

Price (06:45: UTC): Y161.99

SUP 1: Y159.87 1% envelope of moving average
SUP 2: Y158.39 minimum of 9 May
SUP 3: Y158.25 2% envelope
SUP 4: Y157.62 peak of Ishimoku clouds

Devisenanalyse AUDUSD

Die australische Dollar blieb unter Druck nach der Veröffentlichung der schlechten Vorhersage für das Wachstum in der heutigen Staatshaushalt. Aber die AUD bleib nach wie vor oberhalb der Trendlinie vom Januartief, und zur Verbesserung der Stimmung muss das Paar über die Widerstandlinie vom Maximum vom 23.April steigen, der heute nicht weit von 0,9492 Dollar liegt.

RES 4: $ 0.9541 Tageshoch vom 23. April
RES 3: $ 0.9520 1% Umschlag des Moving Average
RES 2: $ 0.9492 Widerstandlinie vom April 23
RES 1: $ 0.9479 Tageshoch von 12 und 13. Mai

Die Rate: $ 0.9394

SUP 1: $ 0.9351 Trendlinie vom Minimum Januar
SUP 2: $ 0,9305 55-täglicher Moving Average
SUP 3: $ 0.9278 Tageshoch vom 2. Mai
SUP 4: $ 0,9248 50% Fibonacci zwischen $0,8956 $ - $ 0.9540

Trade recommendation

By

Euro/Dollar. The candle "live", which was formed on the daily chart on Thursday as well as on a weekly chart, said that the current pair formed an interim minimum and will be consolidated on it in the next few days. Today the price will be likely traded above the level of 1.5350 with a possible breakthrough to 1.5450. In the case of overcoming of the figure 1.5500 the covering of short positions may be continued until the level of 1.5555/1.5600.

Strategy. To open buy positions at 1.5390/1.5360; stop below 1.5270. Short-term target at 1.5475, the next at 1.5550.

Dollar/Yen. Candle "bear merger" on a weekly chart against the level of 50% Fibonacci correction showed that the currency pair formed an intermediate top. This week the continuation of consolidation below 105.50 is expected. A descending movement may be supported in the range between 102.00 - 101.50. In the long term, we expect the continuation of the fall of course.

Strategy. To open short positions at the 103.50, but only in the case if you already prepared to reinforce positions before 104.50; stop above 105.00. Short-term target at 103.00/102.75 area, then at 101.50.

Pound/Dollar. The currenct pair tested the bottom of the figure "wedge" with descending movement. Keep an eye on the possible formation of the turn figures this week.

Strategy. To open buy positions at 1.9465, stop below 1.9400. Short-term target at 1.9550 and then at 1.9665.

Technical Analysis - EURGBP

Indicators on the day chart euro/pound tried to recover: Daily stochastik shows bull cross, and the momentum is recovering. The firsdt support from the levels of stg0.7848, stg0.7790. Bulls should pay attention to the beginning at the level of stg0.7943.

RES 4: stg0.8100 current maximums, the upper line of daily Bollinger bands
RES 3: stg0.8030 2% envelope
RES 2: stg0.7950 1% envelope
RES 1: stg0.7943 21-day moving average

current price: Stg0.7895 (07:17 UTC)

SUP 1: stg0.7768 correctional minimum, the base line of Bollinger bands
SUP 2: stg0.7744/48 50% correction, minima March 24
SUP 3: stg0.7728 support line from 1.November
SUP 4: stg0.7713 2% envelope

Devisenanalyse

Devisenanalyse - EURUSD

Technische Analysten CIBC empfehlen, Aufmerksamkeit auf Tages-, Wochen- und Monatenchart von EURUSD zu lenken, und stellen fast, dass darauf man seltsames Zusammentreffen von den negative Signale, die Risiken eines weiteren Unterwegs des Währungspaares beweisen. Auf dem Wochenchart ist der Bereich Eröffnung dieser Woche unter dem Bereich Ausschlusses der vorherigen. Dabei zeigen die Kerze Bär-Trend. Damit auf allen Chart bildet sich Zapfen-Model Divergenz. CIBC schätzt, dass das erste Zeil des Währungspaares auf $1.50 sein soll. Aber in der langfristigen Perspektive weisen die technische Signale auf eine Potenz des Untergangs in der Richtung auf $1.4100 hin. Die Bank bemerkt, nur der Tagesschluss oberhalb $1.6000 gebe einen Anlaß zur Unruhe.